The Hole Truth

I like doughnuts.

Let me be a little more emphatic.  I REALLY like doughnuts.

In fact, I'd be pretty hard-pressed to come up with something that I DIDN'T like about doughnuts.  Ok, maybe the calories -- but really, who pays attention to stuff like that?

Let's face it -- doughnuts are good in just about every way it's possible to BE good. 

That said, and with my feet firmly planted in the pro-doughnut camp, I'm trying to come up with an estimate on the number of doughnuts I eat per year.  I'm going to take a stab at it here and say that, on average, I eat about two dozen doughnuts per year.  (A big portion of that comes from my annual week spent cooped up in Boston's Copley Place, where I tend to grab a couple from the world's poshest Dunkin' Donuts every morning on my way to meetings.)

So that's my best guess.  As an enthusiastic doughnut consumer, I eat roughly 24 a year.  It's my belief that this places me squarely in the median usage bracket in terms of doughnut consumption.

And as an average doughnut consumer, I feel compelled to tell you, dear readers, that it's my belief that my doughnut needs are well-met by the region's doughnut sellers.  I would say that, in nearly all instances, I'm never more than about 5 minutes away from a doughnut, should the need arise.  Granted, that might not always mean a DUNKIN' doughnut -- but I find that local bakeries as well as Giant Eagle make more than adequate doughnut products.  (As I've mentioned before, however, I'm NOT a fan of the super-sweet lard bombs from Krispy Kreme.  Apparently others of you aren't, either -- I think they've closed a couple of local outlets.)  Of course, you never get over your first love, and for me, nobody will ever match the quality of the late, lamented Danny's Doughnuts on Route 22 in Monroeville.  I would, however, manage to overcome that particular loss should somebody ever open one of these in the area.

It's with all of this in mind that I read the news that Dunkin' Donuts wants to expand from 10 to 115 outlets in this area.

Try and wrap your mind around that, Pittsburghers.  115 Dunkin' Donuts.  Here.  How far are you from a Dunkin' Donuts right now?  Probably not more than 10 minutes, I'll bet.  And that's with 10 of them.  How in god's name are we going to support 110 MORE of them?

I wanted to parse this data a little bit.  Here are some figures:

• In 2006, there were 1,223,411 people living in Allegheny County.  If I am the average doughnut consumer, then that means we'll eat 29,361,864 doughnuts in a given year. 
• Divide that number by 115, the number of Dunkin' Doughnuts we're going to have.  If, as they clearly intend, Dunkin' drives every other doughnut establishment out of business, creating a doughnut monopoly in our fair county, then (on average), each Dunkin' Doughnuts will sell 255,320 doughnuts per year.
• There are 525,600 minutes in a year.  On average, then, each Dunkin Doughnuts will sell 2.06 doughnuts per minute, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
• How much does a doughnut go for?  Let's say it's a dollar, although I think it's less.  That means that each Dunkin' Doughnuts will make $255,320 in doughnut-revenue per year.  Of course, they sell coffee and maybe some other crap, but I'm guessing that the biggest income-producer at Dunkin' Doughnuts is, in fact, doughnuts.  Can a retail outlet survive on a quarter-mil a year?  I'm thinking rent alone would eat up a huge chunk of that, and that's before you pay your minimum wage wage slaves, buy your ingredients, etc.
• Allegheny County comprises about 730 square miles.  County parks account for 19 of those.  Let's be extremely conservative here and say that city parks as well as rivers, topography and other factors render another 100 square miles unusuitable for doughnut-related development.  That leaves 611 square miles.
• 611 square miles, divided by 115 Dunkin' Doughnuts, comes out to a Dunkin' Doughnuts every 5.3 square miles. 
• The Greater Pittsburgh yellow pages lists 56 McDonalds restaurants -- far and away the number one food franchise in the region at the moment, but slightly less than half of the number of Dunkin' Doughnuts that are about to be bestowed upon us.  (The number of McDonalds includes restaurants as far away as Kittaning as well as multiple locations in the Pittsburgh airport.)

All of which leads to one simple conclusion:

Loosen your belts, Pittsburgh.

UPDATE:

Looks like the "105 new outlets" thing ISN'T a typo.  I thought for sure it was.

Comments

[deadlytoque]

This reminds me of my time in Toronto, at law school. I am also a big supporter of the doughnut (and also a detractor of the Krispy Kreme), but a far below-average consumer. I eat perhaps a dozen a year. Apparently Toronto is a big city for them, though, as I can distinctly recall a Tim Horton's within sight of every single subway station in the city. You couldn't walk for ten minutes in any direction downtown without passing one, and scattered between them are countless other coffee-and-doughnut shops.

I just checked, and apparently there are 65 Timmie's in Toronto-proper. I can't imagine how many that adds up to in the GTA.

Even guessing that tubby Canucks are HUGE doughnut consumers, and factoring in that Tim Horton's sells decent soup-and-sandwich combos, and their famous "double-double" coffee, I'm still baffled that they can support that many stores, especially when one realizes that Tim's is a franchise, not a chain, and so it's not like corporate can just choose to run one at a loss if another is doing well.

[Josh]

This has got to be based on a typo in a press release. That should read "15 new stores" instead of 105. Right? I mean, no sane businessperson decides to expand his market presence by a factor of 10 all at once, right? RIGHT???

[Bob]

Josh -- it either has to be that, or else they're including things like display racks in convenience and grocery stores as "new outlets." Krispy Kreme has a presence in a number of local convenience stores, maybe Dunkin' is going to go after that niche.

[Julie]

The plain glazed donut has 180 calories and 8 grams of fat.

Therefore in one year, locals will consume just under 5.3 BILLION calories and 235 MILLION grams of fat.

I think I just heard some arteries gasp in unison.

[Mountain Mama]

Long live the doughnut!

I am convinced that the lemon-filled Krispy Kreme doughnut is God's own doughnut.

The tartness of the lemon blends perfectly with the sweetness of the doughnut. If you like lemon, you must try one.

[Cynthia Closkey]

I think you've underestimated the average doughnut consumer. My dad, for example, probably eats at least dozen doughnuts every *month*. Each of my brothers and my brother-in-law chomps down quite a few as well. (This is not counting the Entemann's danishes they also enjoy.)

Take those guys and balance them out with me, my mom, and my sister -- who consume maybe 2 doughnuts a month.

You end up with a Closkey-clan average of 41 doughnuts per person per year. (24 doughnuts per month / 7 people * 12 months = 148.6 doughnuts per person per year)

Which goes a long way to explaining the expanding Closkey-clan waistlines.

[yellojkt]

Most Dunkin Donuts in my area come with a Baskin Robbins and/or a Blimpies so that you have more than one way of getting fat in them.

[Joe]

It must be a New England thing, because a friend of mine was driving around in a Connecticut suburban area and in the span of a five minute call reported four Dunkin Donut shops, live, on the call.

They're here! You're next! You're next!

(Vomit)

I'm with the Closkeys. Based on my personal donut eating experience you've gotta bring that per person average up. I could fill your annual quota in a really weird weekend. With you, Bob!

What if they were opening a Fractured Prune on every corner of Millvale? Wouldn't you want to move to Millvale?

[amy]

I think that the Krispy Kremes are popular in areas with sucky or non-existent local bakeries. The opening of a new franchise in LaLaLand was traffic-stopping for weeks.

How do I feel about the local variety of this fine treat? I wrote a post (partially) about it shortly after I got back! http://hpwt.blogspot.com/2007/07/unpacking-of-quilt-central.html

That Dunkin Donuts number has to be a typo or, as someone else said, counting in-store displays at other places as outlets.

[Cathy]

Maybe Dunkin Donuts is following the Starbucks business plan: A Starbucks (now Dunkin Donuts) on every corner...

[Chris]

Dunkin Donuts claims to sell more donuts, bagels and muffins than any other "quick" service restaurant in America.

But I think most of their coin comes from selling coffee. Dunkin’Donuts is the number-one retailer of coffee by the cup in America, selling 2.7 million cups a day.
averaging 30 cups of coffee each second.

[Bob]

Joe, you're right. We could probably easily put away my yearly average in a weekend, particularly if there was a Fractured Prune around. I actually looked at their franchising information for a few days -- dreaming of spending the rest of my days making people happy with doughnuts. Wasn't to be, though.

We do need to get back to your idea of eating all of the insane high-calorie products put out by the fast food giants. I could probably stomach a Monster Thickburger or two -- but you're on your own with the Famous Bowls.

[Frank]

I too lamented the demise of Danny's Doughnuts on a trip back to Pittsburgh for a family reunion. I was also disturbed by the way Primanti Brothers had become a franchise.

Does anyone remember a place in Oakland that was "the home of the atomic doughnut"?

[Susan]

As an occasional Krispy Kreme, I will only say that the lard bombs are so sweet, you only eat 2 (usually) and space out the trips more.

BTW, I didn't realize how analytically inclined you are, Bob...or that you had such a slow day at work!

[Ms. Caroline]

All of my local (Eastern suburbs) Krispy Kremes have closed and become free-standing Chick-Fil-A's. I wonder how Dunkin Donuts won't suffer the same fate? Over-saturation is the kiss of death. Where did Quizno's go?

[Nic]

You'll definitely have to bring up your average a little. I eat more than two dozen donuts a year and I'm dangerously thin.

[Bob]

That's it -- I INSIST on a Braughler/Kelly reunion soon, during which time massive quantities of donuts will be consumed. I think you'll be surprised at how many young Adam is able to put away at the tender age of 4.

As for location -- well, if we do it in DC, then Fractured Prune donuts will be plentiful. We do it here, that French guy in Millvale knows his way around a donut, I'll bet. Plus, we can finally do Kennywood.

And I don't want to hear about you guys being worn out from travel. We're only 4 hours away!